Israel’s parliamentary elections: Palestinian votes at the heart of the contest
Ahead of the election scheduled for October 27, the latest projections give neither main bloc a majority. Palestinian citizens of Israel, fears of voter intimidation and parties crossing the electoral threshold could shape the next Knesset. This special review brings together five sources published from October 23 to 26: the figures cited are pre-election polling estimates, not election results.
The New Arab reports that Benjamin Netanyahu and Bezalel Smotrich plan to deploy nearly 2,000 right-wing activists to Arab polling stations. The reported plan raises fears of intimidation at a time when Palestinian citizens’ votes could influence the parliamentary balance. Samah Wattad addresses this issue in the video shared with IsPal info. The deployment is described as a plan: this is not confirmation that it has taken place, nor a measurement of its effects on turnout.
Polling stations opened on Tuesday for the first election since October 7, 2023. The Guardian notes that Ra’am and the Joint List, projected at 12 to 15 seats, may hold the balance of power: in 2021 Mansour Abbas brought Ra’am into Naftali Bennett’s coalition, and Netanyahu himself had previously negotiated with him. The paper also profiles Eisenkot: architect of the Dahiya doctrine of “disproportionate force”, evasive on a two-state solution, he pledges to take West Bank administration away from Smotrich and hand it back to the army. Counting could take more than a day.
The i24NEWS/Direct Polls survey projects 59 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc and 47 for Eisenkot’s, while Kan’s survey gives them 50 and 52 respectively. Both project 14 seats for the Joint List and Ra’am combined, leaving neither main bloc with a 61-seat majority. The i24NEWS survey was conducted on October 22 among 5,124 adults, with a reported sampling margin of error of 1.4 percentage points. These competing estimates underline the difference between a party’s popularity and a bloc’s ability to assemble a parliamentary majority.
The final Channel 12, Channel 13 and Kan polls cited by Haaretz give Eisenkot’s bloc 56, 54 and 52 seats respectively, against 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc in all three surveys. Eisenkot’s Yashar party leads Likud in each of them. Arab-majority parties receive between 14 and 16 seats, making their potential parliamentary support central to coalition negotiations. None of these three surveys gives the opposition an outright majority, and their agreement should not be treated as a consensus across all pollsters.
In Kfar Qasim, Palestinian citizens of Israel are mobilising against Netanyahu’s coalition, while others remain hesitant or advocate abstention. Projections cited by the Guardian give Ra’am and the Joint List a combined 12 to 15 seats. Strategic voting to limit far-right power coexists with disillusionment with the political system and opposition parties’ reluctance to govern alongside Arab representatives. These are pre-election dynamics, not a measured election-day turnout rate.
Maariv, Channel 12 and Channel 13 polls cited by JTA estimate that 5–10% of voters remain undecided; pollster Mitchell Barak believes the proportion is higher. The 3.25% electoral threshold makes some small parties’ ability to enter the Knesset consequential for seat distribution and coalition prospects. Ofer Kenig of the Israel Democracy Institute cautions, however, that many undecided voters are choosing between parties within the same bloc. Their decisions may therefore change parties’ relative strength without necessarily reversing the balance between Netanyahu and his opponents.
The PolitPro page checked on October 27 displays a trend updated on October 25, 2026. This is a weighted average across polling institutes, not a new survey conducted on October 25. It puts Likud ahead of Yashar, unlike the October 23 Midgam survey shown below. A polling average, an individual survey and election results are three different things.
PolitPro trend · updated October 25, 2026
Likud
18.7 %
Yashar · Eisenkot
17.0 %
Voting intentions, in %: Likud leads Yashar by 1.7 percentage points. PolitPro projects 54 of 120 seats for the incumbent governing alliance, below the 61 needed for a majority. This seat projection is separate from vote shares; it is not an election result.
These figures are published by the Central Elections Committee throughout the day and relayed by the press. The 8pm Jerusalem-time reading is not final turnout. These are turnout rates, not election results.
7.331 million voters are called to the polls, including 600,000 new voters. In November 2022, final turnout reached 70.6%.
Polling stations close at 10pm (local time). The first exit polls are expected at that hour: they will be provisional estimates, liable to shift during the count, not results.
10am (local time)
16.68 %
Highest level at that hour since 1981, according to the Central Elections Committee.
Noon (local time)
31.5 %
Highest midday turnout since 1977, according to the Central Elections Committee.
2pm (local time)
44.9 %
All-time record at that hour since records began in 1973, against 38.9% in 2022, according to the Central Elections Committee.
4pm (local time)
55.7 %
Historic record since records began: nearly 4.85 million voters have cast ballots, 8.2 points above 2022 at the same hour (47.5%), according to the Central Elections Committee.
8pm (Jerusalem time)
74.3 %
5,449,277 of 7,331,981 eligible voters have voted, according to the Central Elections Committee quoted by Anadolu. That is 8 percentage points above 2022 at the same hour (66.3%). This is not final turnout.
Three issues will be decisive: actual turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel, small parties crossing the electoral threshold and the alliances accepted after voting. A polling lead guarantees neither a majority nor the formation of a government. Official results and any actual intimidation must be verified separately: this review announces no winner and no final turnout figure.
The Monthly file · October 2026
Understanding Israeli elections
How the vote works, how a majority is built, who sits in the Knesset — and a history of electoral and institutional channels in Israel, which have always coexisted with exclusion, military rule and occupation.
Israel is a unicameral parliamentary system. Voters elect the Knesset's 120 members for a term of up to four years; early elections are held if the Knesset votes to dissolve itself or if no government can be formed.
Electoral system: full proportional representation
The whole country is a single national constituency. People vote for a closed party list, not a candidate. Seats are allocated proportionally (D'Hondt, locally called Bader-Ofer), with surplus-vote agreements between lists.
The 3.25% threshold
A list needs at least 3.25% of the vote (about 4 seats) to enter the Knesset. Raised in 2014, the threshold pushed Arab parties to unite in the Joint List, and penalises them when they run separately: votes for lists below the threshold are lost.
The majority: 61 seats
No party has ever won an absolute majority alone. Governing requires a coalition of at least 61 members. After the vote, the president consults the lists and tasks the person most likely to build a majority with forming a government (28 days, extendable by 14). The government takes office after a Knesset confidence vote.
Who votes, who does not
Israeli citizens aged 18 and over vote, including West Bank settlers and Palestinian citizens of Israel (about 16% of the electorate). Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, under Israeli control since 1967, cannot vote; most East Jerusalem Palestinians are residents, not citizens. There is no absentee voting abroad, except for diplomats.
Disqualification of lists
The Central Elections Committee can disqualify a list or candidate (denying the state's 'Jewish and democratic' character, incitement to racism, support for armed struggle). It is regularly used against Arab parties; the Supreme Court has so far overturned most of these bans.
2. From the 2022 seats to the 2026 formations
Seats won in November 2022 (25th Knesset). Lists have since split, merged or been created.
120 seats, ten elected listsBuilding a majority
At its formation after the 2022 election, the Netanyahu coalition held 64 of 120 seats. The absolute majority threshold is 61.
Historical reference, not a projection or a 2026 result.
Likoud
Nationalist right, Benjamin Netanyahu's party.
32
Yesh Atid
Secular centre, Yair Lapid's 2022 slate; in 2026, he co-leads Together with Naftali Bennett.
24
Sionisme religieux / Otzma Yehudit
Religious, pro-settlement far right (Smotrich, Ben Gvir).
14
Unité nationale
2022 centre-right slate around Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot; Eisenkot now leads Yashar, separate from National Unity.
12
Shas
Sephardi ultra-Orthodox.
11
Judaïsme unifié de la Torah
Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox.
7
Israel Beytenou
Secular right, Avigdor Lieberman.
6
Ra’am
Conservative Islamist Arab list, Mansour Abbas; joined a coalition in 2021.
5
Hadash-Ta’al
Jewish-Arab left (communists) and Ahmad Tibi.
5
Travaillistes
Historic Zionist left, since merged with Meretz into 'The Democrats'.
4
Source: Central Elections Committee, results for the 25th Knesset (1 November 2022). Colours distinguish lists; they are not official party colours. Official results
2026 election · who is running
The main lists, by camp
36 lists are running. Below, the ones that matter most, grouped by political camp.
Good to know: the seat charts above show 2022 results. These are 2026 candidates — no result yet.
Netanyahu's bloc (outgoing coalition)
Right, far right and ultra-Orthodox parties currently in government.
Likoud / Likud
Benyamin Netanyahou / Benjamin Netanyahu
Nationalist right and the largest party in the outgoing coalition. Netanyahu seeks to retain power with religious and far-right partners. Its 32 seats from 2022 are a historical result, not its 2026 score.
Sionisme religieux–Zehut / Religious Zionism–Zehut
Bezalel Smotrich · Moshe Feiglin
Religious, pro-settlement far right allied with Netanyahu, joined by Moshe Feiglin's Zehut. The slate is separate from Otzma Yehudit; the fourteen seats of their joint 2022 slate cannot be assigned to it alone.
Otzma Yehudit
Itamar Ben-Gvir
Nationalist far right with roots in the Kahanist movement, headed by the national security minister. A partner in Netanyahu's bloc, Otzma Yehudit is separate from Smotrich's party for this election.
Shas
Aryeh Deri
Sephardi and Mizrahi ultra-Orthodox party and Netanyahu coalition partner. It defends religious institutions, its constituency's interests and continued military-service exemptions for yeshiva students.
Judaïsme unifié de la Torah / United Torah Judaism
Degel HaTorah · Agoudat Israël
Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox alliance of Degel HaTorah and Agudat Yisrael. A Netanyahu-bloc partner, it advocates funding for religious institutions and military-service exemptions. It is a joint slate rather than a single party.
Jewish opposition to Netanyahu
Centre, secular right and Zionist left seeking to replace the government.
Yashar
Gadi Eisenkot
Eisenkot left National Unity in July 2025 and announced Yashar on 16 September 2025. His party is separate from Together, the Bennett–Lapid alliance. Haaretz describes him as the leader of the main anti-Netanyahu bloc in the 23 October 2026 surveys: a polling lead is neither a victory nor a secured majority.
Together / Ensemble
Naftali Bennett · Yair Lapid
The two former prime ministers co-lead Together. For this election, describing Lapid only under his 2022 Yesh Atid label no longer identifies the formation listed in the latest polls.
Israel Beytenou / Yisrael Beiteinu
Avigdor Lieberman
Lieberman's secular right is counted among opponents of Netanyahu's bloc. Being included in the same polling bloc does not mean a governing coalition has already been agreed.
Les Démocrates / The Democrats
Yair Golan
Yair Golan leads the Democrats. The party brings together Labour and Meretz; Labour's four seats in 2022 are not its 2026 election result.
Arab parties
Slates backed by Palestinian citizens of Israel, open to conditional support.
Liste commune / Joint List
Yousef Jabareen
Alliance of Hadash, Ta'al and Balad, combining Jewish-Arab left and Palestinian nationalist currents. It does not include Ra'am. On October 24, Jabareen expressed openness to conditional support for an alternative to Netanyahu, with no secured governing agreement.
Ra’am / Liste arabe unie
Mansour Abbas
Conservative Islamist Arab party, separate from the Joint List. Having joined the Bennett–Lapid coalition in 2021, it pursues negotiation over the rights and needs of Palestinian citizens of Israel. Abbas discusses conditional cooperation with the opposition.
Smaller lists near the threshold
They only enter the Knesset with at least 3.25% of the vote.
Les Réservistes et le Parti économique / The Reservists and the Economic Party
Yoaz Hendel · Yaron Zelekha
Joint slate filed by Yoaz Hendel and economist Yaron Zelekha. It is among the smaller lists whose entry to the Knesset depends on the 3.25% threshold.
Amcha Israël / Amcha Israel
Ofer Winter
New far-right party led by former general Ofer Winter. It remained below the threshold in the three final-campaign surveys cited by Haaretz.
Le Public haredi / The Haredi Public
Motti Leitner
New ultra-Orthodox slate advocating Haredi men's integration into the workforce and core-curriculum education. It was below the threshold in the final surveys cited by Haaretz.
Withdrawn
Kahol Lavan / Bleu et blanc — Benny Gantz. Gantz announced on 19 October 2026 that he would not run. He remains relevant to understanding National Unity in 2022, but is not a candidate competing against Eisenkot in this election.
Declaration of Independence promising equality 'irrespective of religion, race or sex'; the Nakba displaces some 750,000 Palestinians. The promised constitution is never adopted.
1949
First elections to the Constituent Assembly, which becomes the Knesset. Ben-Gurion's Mapai dominates for nearly thirty years.
1948–1966
Palestinian citizens vote but live under military rule: travel permits, curfews, land confiscations. Kafr Qasim massacre in 1956.
1958–
Gradual adoption of Basic Laws (Knesset, government, army…), serving as a piecemeal constitution.
1967
Occupation of the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem: millions of Palestinians under Israeli rule without the vote, a situation lasting nearly 60 years.
1976
Land Day: six Palestinian citizens killed in protests against land confiscations in the Galilee.
1977
'Mahapakh': first turnover, Menachem Begin's Likud ends Labour hegemony.
1985–1988
The Knesset allows racist lists to be barred; Rabbi Kahane's Kach party is banned.
1992
Basic Laws on Human Dignity and Liberty; the Supreme Court uses them to review legislation ('constitutional revolution'). Rabin governs with outside support from Arab parties.
1995
Yitzhak Rabin assassinated by a Jewish extremist opposed to the Oslo Accords.
1996–2001
Experiment with direct election of the prime minister, abandoned because it further fragmented the Knesset.
2000
October 2000: 13 Palestinian citizens killed by police; Arab turnout collapses in the 2001 vote.
2014–2015
Threshold raised to 3.25%; birth of the Joint List, third force in the Knesset in 2015.
2018
'Nation-State of the Jewish People' Basic Law: self-determination reserved to the Jewish people; Arabic loses official-language status.
2019–2022
Five elections in under four years. In 2021, Ra'am becomes the first Arab party to join a governing coalition.
2023
Judicial overhaul by the most right-wing government in history and mass protests; then October 7 and the Gaza war, sharply restricting Palestinian citizens' political expression.
2026
October 27 elections, after attempts to bar Arab lists were overturned by the Supreme Court.
IsPal 